Tesla Dips Amid Concern Model 3 Reservations Won’t Turn Into Buys

In recent days, two research firms have expressed worries that many of the people who have placed pre-orders for Tesla’s (TSLA) Model 3 may not actually buy the vehicles. Goldman Sachs believes that limits on tax credits could hurt Model 3 sales, while Bernstein worried that the problems that Tesla experienced with the launch of its Model X vehicles could deter consumers from buying the Model 3.

TAX CREDIT ISSUE: Two quarters after an automaker has sold a total of 200,000 electric vehicles in the U.S., buyers of the automaker’s electric vehicles no longer receive the entire federal $7,500 tax credit for electric cars, according to Goldman Sachs analyst David Tamberrino. At that point, the buyers only get 50% of the credit. Two quarters later, only 25% of the credit will be awarded, and two quarters after that, the tax credit will end completely, the analyst pointed out yesterday in a note to investors. Noting that Tesla has already sold 130,000 vehicles in the U.S., Tamberrino.says that “only a small amount” of those who have pre-ordered the Model 3 will be eligible for the full tax credit. Consequently, actual sales of the car could be limited, opined the analyst, who kept a Sell rating on Tesla shares.

BERNSTEIN: Owners of Tesla vehicles had to deal with “many service and quality issues” related to the launch of the company’s Model X SUV, according to analyst Toni Sacconaghi, Jr. If those issues are repeated during the Model 3 launch, many orders for the vehicle could be canceled, the analyst stated. Additionally, Sacconaghi noted that his firm found during a recent survey that only 70% of those who had ordered a Model 3 were “likely” or “very likely” to actually buy the vehicle. Advising investors not to “chase” the stock at current levels, he kept a $265 price target and a Market Perform rating on Tesla shares.

PRICE ACTION: In morning trading, Tesla fell 1% to $342 per share.