Tesla Hits High After Piper Upgrades, Says Criticism ‘Probably Won’t Matter’

Despite already gaining 9% after its delivery report last Sunday, Tesla (TSLA) jumped to a new lifetime high Monday as research firm Piper Jaffray upgraded the stock to buy, arguing that the carmaker’s power to captivate consumers and shareholders will likely continue to leave rational minds frustrated as it bucks traditional valuation criteria.

PIPER UPGRADES TO BUY, SAYS RATIONAL MINDS WON’T PREVAIL: Piper Jaffray’s Alexander Potter upgraded Tesla to Overweight while raising his price target to $368 from $223 this morning, arguing that growth investors “can’t afford to ignore this stock.” After driving a Tesla for seven months and holding investor meetings with the company last week, Potter says Tesla’s products “have a captivating impact on consumers and shareholders alike,” a difficult-to-replicate emotional advantage that could leave incumbent automakers looking “desperate” as they scramble to catch up. Though the analyst warns investors to prepare for bumpiness around Model 3 headlines and sympathizes with Tesla bears, Potter concludes that their “arguably rational” arguments “probably won’t matter,” with investors and consumers largely giving the company a pass on its incredible cash burn, “rickety” balance sheet and “unreasonably fast” production timelines. Potter adds that he’s now more convinced that Model 3 deliveries will begin this year, adding that even if the launch stumbles, he believes shareholders will “withhold judgment.”

BARCLAYS HIGHLIGHTS UNREALISTIC FAITH IN TESLA: Last week, Barclays analyst Brian Johnson borrowed the “red pill, blue pill” analogy from 1999 action film “The Matrix” to argue that Tesla believers cling to four “articles of faith” that are largely detached from reality. Specifically, bullish investors say Tesla: has a significant cost advantage in battery packs; a significant lead in autonomous driving, potentially giving it a multi-year edge in launching self-driving cars; will capture dominant market share in autos, similar to the iPhone’s lead in smartphones; and will also dominate in non-auto markets, such as energy, mobility and insurance. Countering those perceptions, Johnson contends that Tesla’s effort to reduce battery pack costs “will take longer than the company says” and see its current lead eroded by competitors; that Tesla’s apparent lead in autonomous driving, evidenced by rolling out Autopilot to everyday users, only means it’s more willing to “beta test” its technology on customers; that there is “no shortage” of competitors entering the electric vehicle market, even as Tesla could face difficulties meeting demand; and that Tesla’s non-auto concepts face “vastly underappreciated” competition. All that said, the analyst concedes that it’s “unclear” what will or could reverse the stock’s momentum as investors “seem happy” with their blue pill.