“The Australian dollar has appreciated somewhat recently. In part, this reflects some increase in commodity prices, but monetary developments elsewhere in the world have also played a role. Under present circumstances,an appreciating exchange rate could complicate the adjustment under way in the economy.” – Statement by Glenn Stevens, Governor: Monetary Policy Decision, April 5, 2016 (emphasis mine)
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has not referred to undesirable strength in the Australian dollar (FXA) in a very long time. The currency has had a very strong run against the U.S. dollar from the January lows although in the past month AUD/USD has swung wildly. Note how the rally accelerated after the LAST RBA meeting!
AUD/USD accelerated its rally in the first part of March, but trading has become a lot more rocky and volatile since then.
The Australian dollar has held up even as iron ore prices have tumbled off a recent and dramatic run-up.
As of March 30th, iron ore’s uptrend from the November lows remains intact, but prices are well off the recent parabolic run-up from March.
Source: Business Insider Australia
The intraday reaction to the RBA’s latest statement on monetary policy was very strange. The currency was very voaltile. The currency market could not decide what to think: an initial burst upward followed by a persistent sell-off.
In response to the RBA’s latest statement on monetary policy, AUD/USD lunged higher before selling off for the rest of the overnight and Asian/European trading sessions
The intraday reaction to the RBA was surprising. Despite the RBA’s explicit reference to the problematic Australian dollar, the currency surged for the first 30 minutes or so. It took another 3 hours for that trigger reaction to reverse. As of the time of writing, the weakness is on-going. Perhaps most importantly, AUD/JPY has definitely failed its test with its 200-day moving average (DMA). Even the 50DMA is failing as support. I hear bears roaring in the distance…
Leave A Comment