While some analysts couldn’t stop buzzing over Apple’s (NASDAQ: AAPL) iPhone X launch, top Oppenheimer analyst Andrew Uerkwitz is skeptical that the new phone can stop AAPL iPhone sales declining. And TipRanks shows that Uerkwitz is a top-ranked analyst. Out of 4,642 analysts, he comes in at #430:

According to Uerkwitz, the launch was “predictable”. He says multiple design leaks in the launch run-up substantially reduced excitement: “Most of iPhone X’s features were widely reported before; the most unexpected feature is Apple’s custom-designed GPU. The updates to the rest of the products are predictable—iPhone 8 and 8 Plus receive performance boosts to processing power and camera quality, and now support wireless charging.”

However, he does agree that “animated emoji (Animoji) based on user’s facial movement looks incredibly fun” and is not overly concerned about the later-than-expected shipping date (11/3) affecting the phone’s demand potential.

Nonetheless, he reiterated his cautious Hold rating on the stock based on his analysis of worrying trends in consumer behavior:  “Our Perform rating on Apple reflects our view that the next several quarters will show year/year declines for iPhone. We believe there is a lengthening of the replacement cycle across the smartphone market to which Apple is not immune. As long as iPhone sales do not grow, we believe the stock will not work.” Uerkwitz does not have a price target on the stock.

So far, this approach has not left Uerkwitz with the best track record on the stock. Here we can see how the analyst has just a 12% success rate and a -13.6% average return across his recent AAPL ratings. Since he downgraded the stock back in May 2016 he has missed out on AAPL’s steady share rise. This includes the share rise following the release of the iPhone 7 in September last year.

However, Uerkwitz does believe that ultimately, longer term, Apple will find “tremendous value” in its ecosystem. This will come from the company’s ability to monetize its huge user base.

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