My Swing Trading Approach

I still think this market could easily roll over at this point. That has yet to happen, but price action of late raises a lot of concerns. If the bulls can breakout here today, I will close the short position and keep the current long positions running. 

Indicators

  • VIX – Gave up most of its losses yesterday to rally back to near break even. Still elevated, with high risk remaining in this market. 
  • T2108 (% of stocks trading below their 40-day moving average): Finished (barely) higher yesterday, but still only 28% trading above their 40-day MA. Very low considering how much this market has rallied over the last two weeks.  
  • Moving averages (SPX?): 20-day moving average continues to reject price, as well as the 50-day moving average. Close to a 20-day/50-day downside crossover. 
  • Industries to Watch Today

    Energy rallied well yesterday. All of your favored sectors of late, were the ones that struggled. Utilities, Real Estate and Defensive sectors were near the top. Not your usual market leaders. 

    My Market Sentiment

    Fourth straight day of price being rejected at the 20-day moving average and third day of rejection at the 50-day moving average. The bears continue to sell the market off each afternoon. There is a good chance of a market roll over, if this bull flag pattern can’t be broken very soon. 

    S&P 500 Technical Analysis

    Current Stock Trading Portfolio Balance

  • 4 Long positions, 1 Short position