The Dollar Shortage Has Arrived: Africa Runs Out Of Dollars

Two months ago, when looking at the latest basis spreads, we showed that a disturbing development, first flagged here in March, was getting worse: namely the “Global Dollar Shortage Intensifies To Worst Level Since 2012.”

We had expected this shortage to manifest itself synthetically – and gradually – primarily in the form of pressure on asset prices as market participants who found themselves in a dollar-deficit position were forced to liquidate USD-denominated assets. This indeed happened over the year as many emerging markets, and sovereign wealth funds, not to mention China, proceeded to offload USD-denominated reserves.

However, in an unexpected turn of events, the disappearance of not just synthetic but very physical dollarshas hit one region much harder and much faster than we expected. Africa.

According to the WSJ, some of Africa’s largest economies, including Nigeria, Angola, Ethiopia and Mozambique, are restricting access to the greenback to protect dwindling reserves.

The implications are dramatic as the lack of dollars for everyday business operations means businesses from Transcorp Hotels to international giants like General Electric Co. (GE) and Coca-Cola Co. (KO), are all struggling to get the dollars they need for imports or to send profits back home.

While the shortage was predicted here on many occasions, however it is quite different to see it in action. The shortage comes as the inflow of dollars from resource exports, from oil to cotton (but mostly oil) has plummeted with the prices of these commodities. The commodity rout also is putting pressure on local currencies, which some central banks are trying to support with their dwindling supply of dollars.

This dollar squeeze is frustrating investors, increasing costs and delaying projects. It may hamper future investment in countries reeling from the fall in commodity prices. “It’s been a rough ride for a lot of companies in Nigeria, if not all the companies,” said Mr. Ozigbo, chief executive of Transcorp Hotels.