There were no surprises from the Federal Reserve today.
The central bank did raise its overnight interest rate, as promised. The target range for the federal funds rate is now 2% to 2.25%, up a quarter-point.
It’s Federal Reserve’s third such move of 2018, with another forecast before year’s end. The present plan still includes another three rate hikes in 2019.
The Federal Open Market Committee’s post-meeting statement did include one surprise, the removal of the word “accommodative” as it applies overall monetary policy.
I guess that means things are getting back to “normal” again.
The Fed’s estimate for gross domestic product growth in 2018 brightened slightly to 3.1%. Inflation should remain around its 2% target for the foreseeable future. And unemployment looks set to drop to 3.7%.
Well ahead of today’s move, Treasury yields ticked up into the 3% range. The yield on the long bond tested four-year highs near 3.25%, while the 10-year hit a seven-year peak near 3.09%.
Maybe China was selling from its stockpile of U.S. government debt.
Whatever the reason, my system triggered a trade alert, identifying the move as an overreaction. Yields backed off after the initial move higher and then jumped again, the 30-year re-testing 3.25%, the 10-year touching 3.11%.
These were interesting moves.
Inflation data is weakening, but rates are moving higher. We’ve seen similar spikes since Donald Trump’s victory in the November 2016 election.
The long-term yield has bounced above 3.20% a handful of times. We’ll see if it’s there to stay…
But let’s face it: Markets are getting jittery, and traders are overreacting to… just about everything.
Good; this is the type of action we want. Overreactions create mispricing. And mispricing creates opportunity…
Is the Foundation Cracking?
Today’s Fed decision soaked up most of the attention that wasn’t focused on the Supreme Court confirmation soap opera playing in D.C.
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