Given gold’s grinding bear market (September 6, 2011 through December 17, 2015, a period of over four years) , it’s not surprising that investors don’t trust the strength that gold found over the past couple of months. After all, there have been plenty of counter-trend rallies over that long, grinding drop.
My view, however, is that the February16th breakout above the channel I’ve drawn made a lasting directional change. The monster surge we saw last week had to be digested somewhat (such as yesterday), but I truly think we’re in a new bull market for gold, and the fake-out moves are going to be in the downward direction, as opposed to upward.
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