The Last 16 Times This Happened There Was A Recession…

Something has just happened that has signaled a recession every single time that it has occurred since World War I.16 times since 1919 there have been at least 8 month-over-month declines in industrial production during the preceding 12 month period, and in each of those 16 instances the U.S. economy has plunged into recession.Now that it has happened again, will the U.S. economy beat the odds and avoid a major economic downturn?I certainly wouldn’t count on it.As I have written about repeatedly, there are a whole host of other numbers that are screaming that a new recession is here, and global financial markets are crumbling.It would take a miracle of epic proportions to pull us out of this tailspin, and yet there are many people out there that are absolutely convinced that it will happen.

John Hussman is not one of them.In his most recent weekly comment, he examined this stunning correlation between month-over-month declines in industrial production and recessions.To me, what Hussman has presented is overwhelmingly conclusive…

After looking at that chart, is there anyone out there that still doubts that the U.S. economy is in significant trouble?

Many estimates of U.S. GDP growth for the fourth quarter of 2015 are already just a small fraction of one percent.It would not be a surprise at all to see a negative number posted once it is all said and done.

And of course more bad news for the economy just keeps pouring in.So far this week we have learned that the growth rate of federal withholding taxes has turned negative, Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) plans has announced that it is eliminating 3,000 jobs, and BP has announced that it is eliminating 4,000 jobs.

Of course it is not exactly a surprise that BP (BP) is cutting jobs.At this point the entire energy industry is absolutely hemorrhaging workers.As I wrote about yesterday, 130,000 good paying energy jobs have been lost in the United States since the beginning of last year.