Today we face expensive assets everywhere we look. Whether it is real estate, equities, fixed income – capital is chasing assets at a disturbing pace. Central Banks, with their massive quantitative easing programs and negative rates, have inflated anything with a CUSIP, and those private investors venturing out the risk curve have taken care of everything else.
So what’s an investor to do? Is there anything truly cheap anymore?
Well, rest assured, there is absolutely nothing easy left. Anything with a little bit of meat on the bone has been picked clean. You could try making some money taking the other side of this over valuation, but you need to realize who is on the other side of your trade. Although you might time the occasional squiggle lower, I would rather not fight Central Banks and their unlimited fire power.
No, I would rather go looking for something truly forgotten, hated, and cheap.
And nothing fits this bill better than grains.
I told you this wasn’t going to be easy, so when the idea of buying grains makes you throw up a little in your mouth, don’t immediately discount its investment merit. The grain charts look like death. No two ways about it. As the trader who sits beside me says, “going long grains is a hedge against profits.”
I realize these charts do not represent grain’s actual returns due to the problems rolling contracts and the embedded carry (positive/negative depending on the shape of the curve), but it gives you a sense of the spot market over the past five years. The selling has been relentless, and discouraging.
I like to follow agriculture twitter. It’s a nice break from all the finance guys bragging about their latest wins or posting pictures of the meat they are bbq’ng that evening. The ag people seem a little more humble, but I must admit, I get a kick out of them showing off their latest tractors or combines.
The reason I bring this up is to give you a sense of the sentiment within the agriculture trader community.
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