George Soros, the man who “broke the Bank of England,”[1] recently made a killing in gold-mining shares before promptly cutting his ties to the yellow metal at the end of the second quarter.
In the first quarter, Soros Fund Management LLC. took a $263.7 million stake in Barrick Gold Corporation (ABX), the world’s largest gold mining company. Just three months later, the billionaire investor cut his holdings of the gold miner by 94%. The company just so happened to enjoy its best-ever performance during that period. Since Soros left, the company retreated sharply from its three-year high.[2]
After a cyclical bear market that stretched several years, gold entered into bull market territory this year, as the combination of financial market instability and continued monetary easing by central banks supported a large rally in precious metals. Gold has increased around 28% since the start of the year, but has found itself stuck in a range since the post-Brexit boom sent the yellow metal to fresh two-year highs on multiple occasions in June[3] and July.[4]
But with Soros exiting gold miners and speculation abound that the US Federal Reserve is on course to raise interest rates at least once this year, gold’s bullish rally has faded. Since the post-Brexit surge, the yellow metal has found itself trading within a predictable range of $1,315-$1,365 a troy ounce.
Gold’s slowdown can be most closely observed by its failure to capitalize on recent weakness in the US dollar. The dollar index, an exchange-weighted average of the US currency against a basket of peers, plunged 1.8% over a five-day losing streak in the middle of August, knocking it down to its lowest level in around two months. Gold, which is priced in US dollars and normally trades inversely with the currency, was unable to capitalize.
According to CPM Group, a commodities research firm located in New York, Gold prices will continue to soften in the short-term. While fundamentals remain supportive of stronger prices, the lack of fresh trading catalysts will keep price action subdued in the immediate term.[5]
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