The New Debt Bomb

Count me among the worriers that thought our debt was a problem at $10 trillion… and then at $15 trillion.

I was wrong.

Or, at least, those levels didn’t seem to phase investors, who kept putting down their cold, hard cash to buy U.S. Treasury bonds.

As I shook my head over the past several years, we continued our profligate ways, and now our national debt stands at a whopping $20.5 trillion, slightly more than our annual GDP.

It’s about to get worse. Much worse.

I’m a fan of the recent tax reform, mostly because I’m a fan of my money. I like to keep as much as I can. The recent legislation gives me, and most working Americans, a few more coins in my pocket. But it comes at a cost.

It’s old news that on its face the new tax law adds $1.5 trillion to the U.S. deficit over the next 10 years. The main goal of the plan is to cut the corporate tax rate, making American corporations more competitive and America itself an enticing location for companies wanting to relocate their businesses.

To sell a tax cut for corporate America, Congress also added tax relief for a broad swath of workers. The end result is less tax revenue, but we’re still spending like crazy. Which results in a bigger deficit. But there’s more to it than that.

Because the tax law was passed through budget reconciliation, at the end of 10 years the law must be revenue neutral. In other words, at some point in the future, we have to claw back some of those tax cuts, at least on paper.

The Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT) estimates that we’ll add $200 billion or so to the deficit in the first few years under the new tax regime, but by 2023 something magical happens. The loss narrows.

By 2027, the new tax structure actually captures more revenue and reduces the deficit. If that sounds like sleight of hand, it’s because it is.

To make the numbers work, Congress wrote into law that taxes on certain groups of workers will begin to rise starting in the early 2020s, and by the end of the 10-year window, most Americans will pay more in taxes than they do today. I’m guessing it will never happen.