The Short-Term Trend

The market has stalled a bit after the big break out. This is starting to look like a rally up to the top of the range. Then again, we are in the middle of earnings and there is tons of news everyday.

This doesn’t look right, but maybe it will resolve itself soon.

The indexes that really matter are moving higher. The general market is not going lower while this index goes higher.

This is the stock I am watching. So far, it looks good.

Commodities, Currencies

What is this spreadsheet telling us?

The goal in looking at this spreadsheet is to spot the currencies that are outperforming, and to buy stocks from those countries. The goal is also to determine the strength of commodities, and use that information to help determine which sectors to buy within the stock market.

The emerging market currencies are still outperforming the US Dollar which means we should be keeping an eye on emerging market stocks. But the charts suggest some emerging market weakness.

The US Dollar is still outperforming the Euro, but the Euro had a huge upward spike this week. As a result, the European stocks are performing very well.

Commodities in general are not doing well, and neither are the commodity-related currencies. This means avoid energy and mining stocks along with the foreign ETFs such as Canada and Australia.

We could be getting an important change in trend for oil-related currencies. The Mexican Peso and Brazil Real are examples. It helps explain why we see these foreign stock ETFs starting to under-perform.

This chart below provides one of the important reasons why you see the Europe Stock ETF (VGK) performing well.

The Leader List

Semiconductors are back in the leader list.

This chart is a bit of a mess, but I do like the way it is forming some higher lows and is now trading above the 200-day.  I like this group longer-term. It could be a good holding going into the final days of a long bull market.