The U.S. Economy, Post-Payrolls & Pre-FOMC

This week’s Notes From the Rabbit Hole included a little Payrolls/Wages related economic discussion before moving on to the usual coverage of stock markets, commodities, precious metals, bonds, currencies and related indicators and market internals. With FOMC on tap there will be more data noise directly ahead, but then I expect markets to smooth out into what is looking like a sensible short and intermediate-term plan.

U.S. Economy

Graphic sources: St. Louis Fed, BLS, TradingEconomics, Macrotrends & Bespoke Premium

So Payrolls came in a little firmer than expected and interestingly, the manufacturing sectors did some solid hiring. This is an area that is sensitive to coming fiscal policy because it is subject to regulations likely to be repealed (especially environmental, a real fundamental underpinning) and high paying jobs repatriation to U.S. shores (a phony baloney fundamental, at least in large part, in my opinion). In this graph we see that manufacturing job losses had been easing into the election, but job gains have ramped up after the election. All of this on anticipated policy changes?

manufacturing payrolls

Manufacturing jobs pay above the average of all industries, but the highest pay rates will go to those programming and maintaining automated systems, including robotics.

earnings by industry, bls

As an aside to the BLS graphic above, look at the red dot languishing down there in the lowest paid quadrant for job gainers. Leisure & Hospitality has consistently been an employment driver as we’ve noted the great consumer economy “servicing itself” month after month as each Payrolls report is released.

Who do you think is filling that ongoing and consistent need for workers to clean hotel rooms, clean restrooms, bus tables and wash dishes? Well, it is not dear old Hazel of yore, that much I can tell you. So who is going to fill those low-wage jobs that the average American may perceive to be beneath them, going forward?

hazel