There’s Only 1-2 Years Left In This Bull Market. You Should Be Long Stocks

Written by Troy

Based on current economic data, the Medium-Long Term Model predicts that this bull market still has 1-2 years left.

A reader asked

As a fellow 3x ETFer, are we not playing with fire with a correction being so close?

Here’s my detailed response.

The stock market can go up a lot in the final 2 years of a bull market.

Risk is higher in the last 1-2 years of a bull market. But it’s important to remember that the stock market can go up A LOT in the last 1-2 years.

Bull market ending on December 2, 1968: the S&P went up 15% in the last year and 35% in the last 2 years of this bull market.

Bull market ending on January 12, 1973: the S&P went up 15% in the last year and 28% in the last 2 years of this bull market.

Bull market ending on March 24, 2000: the S&P went up 19% in the last year and 38% in the last 2 years of this bull market.

Bull market ending on October 11, 2007: the S&P went up 14.8% in the last year and 30% in the last 2 years of this bull market.

Let’s be conservative. Let’s say that there’s only 1 year left in this bull market and not 2 years. Hence, the stock market can go up at least 15%. UPRO can go up 45% (UPRO is the S&P 500’s 3x leveraged ETF). A 45% gain in one year is nothing to sneeze at.

This bull market might last for more than 1-2 years

What happens if this bull market lasts more than 1-2 years? What if it’s 2-3 years? Or even 3-4 years? You cannot afford to miss out if the bull market lasts another 3-4 years. The longer this bull market lasts the more potential upside there is.

The Medium-Long Term Model states that the current bull market has 1-2 years left based on the trajectory of current economic data. The final SELL date will change as new data comes in.

Here’s the truth. Nobody has a crystal ball that can tell you EXACTLY when in the future XYZ will happen. Nobody can say “the bull market will end in December 2019”. The best we can do as forecasters is to take things one step at a time. We can only say with confidence “a bear market will not begin next month”.