They are widely covered and very popular stocks, but in this market their valuations do not add up. If this market heads south, you do not want to be caught owning shares of these stocks.
Despite the rally off recent lows so far in October, it remains a very challenging market. Oil rallied early in October, but that rebound has fizzled and the energy and commodity complexes remain under duress with more and more distress in the debts of a great deal of companies in these sectors. The biotech sector ended the third quarter with the worst quarterly performance the sector has seen in seven years. Financial institutions continue to be under pressure because of low-interest rates and heightened regulatory costs. Industrials, Manufacturers and Technology are getting hit by a strong dollar and weak global demand. Small caps are down some 10% from highs this summer even with improved performance in October.
In short, it is hard to find pockets of strength in this market. Even some of the most experienced investors in the market are having a very tough go. Hedge Funds are having their worst year since the financial crisis and several high profile hedge funds have shut down in recent months. Finding winners is crucial to good investment performance but almost as important is avoiding landmines that can blow a hole in your portfolio. At the beginning of the year, I provided a free report on “3 Stocks to Avoid in 2015” which consisted of GoPro (NASDAQ: GPRO), Tesla Motors (NASDAQ: TSLA) and Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN).
GoPro has been an absolute disaster thanks to increasing competition in the space. The stock is down some 60% so far in 2015 as a result. Tesla defied gravity through summer but has recently come down due to falling reliability scores from Consumer Reports among other factors. The stock is slightly down for the year, but still vulnerable to further declines given how the shares are priced pretty much for perfection. At a 100 times next year’s profit consensus, investors are making a big bet that this niche auto play can transition into a mass market automaker without any hiccups while maintaining its current huge margins. That is a wager I would be weary of at the current time.
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