This Means War

Thursday went swimmingly.

Just about the last thing the market needed as everyone tries to figure out whether there is or there isn’t a Powell “put” was for Trump to do something rash, but no sooner had Jay put the finishing touches on a half-decent performance on Capitol Hill than a “very stable genius” started a trade war.

And look, spare me your incredulity. It’s a miracle we’ve gone as long as we have without Trump triggering some market mayhem. After all, you know what they say about letting toupeed baboons play President: something about don’t let toupeed baboons play President.

The headlines were conflicting early on after the tariffs were tipped Wednesday evening.

As a reminder, here’s what’s ultimately at stake:

And here’s another way to visualize it:

Right now, things are resilient:

But as Goldman wrote just a few days ago:

Of course, protectionism is still a risk. In particular, the focus of US trade policy which, so far, has been limited to narrow product categories, would become more concerning if it broadened in scope. Our work suggests that the Trump administration may attempt to appeal to mid-term voters through a protectionist pivot (in either word or deed), potentially directed at China and EM Asia: countries that tend to export to the US goods – most importantly, a wide range of machinery – that may be perceived as competing with US labour. Overall, however, the global trade outlook is still ‘volatile, but strong‘, and supports our view that the dollar can weaken, especially against the currencies of NJA and commodity exporters.