Thoughts About The Price Action

The US dollar has begun the week with a strong advance against sterling and the euro. Sterling’s drop, the most in several years, is not a function of macroeconomic policy. It is a function of Brexit and its endorsement by London Mayor Johnson. Recent polls and identified Johnson, who term as Mayor ends in early May, as the second most influential person on the issue after the Prime Minister himself. 

Sterling fell to about $1.4050 by early North American trading and has subsequently moved broadly sideways. Since the low was recorded, sterling has managed to recoup a cent and is finishing the North American session near its post-low highs. We suspect the market has over-reacted, a near-term bounce can carry it back toward $1.4230-$1.4250.   

Although Cameron appeared to have called the referendum to unite the party, with Johnson taking the other side, the battle for the Tory Party becomes a battle over EU membership, which the Conservatives sponsored in the first place. The eurosceptics have enjoyed free rein, as other camp has been stymied by the negotiations. However, look for those wanting to stay in the EU to begin making their presence felt in a way that was impossible until this past weekend.  

The euro’s slide lost momentum in front of $1.10. It will finish the day below the 20-day moving average for the first time since January 29. The five-day moving average is set to slip below the 20-day average as early as tomorrow. The euro spent most of December and January in a $1.08 to $1.10 trading range. There is some chart support near $1.0950 and $1.0850, but a break of $1.10 would likely signal a move back to $1.08.  

Under a “turn-around Tuesday” scenario, initial resistance is pegged near $1.1070, and then near $1.1120. We suspect euro gains will be limited by the re-widening of the two-year interest rate differential, which is back to levels seen in late-January (~130 bp), and anticipation of further easing by the ECB (with the fall in prices, new orders and output in the flash PMI fanning expectations).