Time To Pick A Top In The Australian Dollar?

The yen’s surge in recent days has captured the attention of investors and policymakers alike. It is indeed unsettling and seems to run counter to the economic logic negative interest rates, which the BOJ surprised the market with at the end of January.

Yet, if one thinks the market has gotten ahead of itself, perhaps pickinga top in the yen may not be prudent. 

Entry levels are important but so is the stop. It is not clear where one should put a stop if trying to pick a bottom to dollar-yen. The dollar fell to new lows today near JPY108.Technically, we have identified potential toward JPY106.80-JPY107.00.

Instead, can we suggest looking for a top in the Australian dollar? 

The low for the year was set in mid-January (~$0.6830), before the other markets turned. The MSCI emerging market equity index bottomed on January 21. Brazil’s Bovespa, one of the leading equity markets this year recorded its lows on January 20. Many other markets–from oil to the S&P 500 turned February 

11-12.  

Between the mid-January low for the Australian dollar to the end of March, when it recorded its high (~$0.7725), the Australian dollar rallied 11.5%.

 Its rally coincided with a number of economic considerations, including the broad recovery in commodities, shifting expectations of Fed policy, negative interest rates in Japan, and more negative interest rates in Europe, and about a 25 bp rise in Australian bill rates, as expectations of a Q1 cut by the RBA faded.

The Australian dollar’s rally began before other markets, and it should not be unexpected that it peaks first. The technical condition of the Australian dollar is deteriorating.

 First, met the 61.8% retracement objective of the slide since last May (that began near $0.8165). That retracement was found by $0.7650. Second, there are bearish divergences with the RSI and MACDS. There technical indicators did not confirm the new high the Aussie set at the end of March. Both indicators are now trending lower.