Technical Analysis:

  • S&P 500 (SPX) rallied for a fifth straight day this week and well overextended. Still the market continues to rally. 
  • Volume on SPDRs S&P 500 (SPY) was once again above average and strong, though not to the same extent seen on Wednesday. 
  • Amazingly, SPY has been up 17 of the last 23 days since the week of the election – a 74% win rate, with dips quickly getting bought up. 
  • Quick bounce in CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) looks to be short lived, as the bounce itself is light and lacking momentum. 
  • Respectable bounce out of oil yesterday, after filling the gap on United States Oil Fund (USO) and bouncing higher thereafter. Look for another retest of the October highs. 
  • As I’ve said before, oil only matters when it is rallying. When it sells off, the market completely shrugs off its impact on the economy. 
  • SPX on the 30 minute chart is definitely stretched. and started showing signs late yesterday of consolidation.
  • T2108 (% of stocks trading above their 40-day moving average) is rallying well right now with 75% of stocks above their MA. There is still room to run as it does’t get overbought until the 80’s are reached. 
  • The Federal Reserve has no choice but to raise rates next week. They are out of excuses and have put themselves into a corner. So far the market hasn’t paid a rate hike any thought. Last year the market didn’t sell off until after the FOMC Statement. 

    • My Trades:

  • Did not add any new trades to the portfolio yesterday. 
  • Did not close out any positions yesterday. 
  • May look to add some short exposure as a hedge against current positions. 
  • I will look to add 1-2 new swing-trades to the portfolio today.
  • I am currently 50% Long / 50% Cash

    • Chart for SPX:

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