Yes, it is as complicated as the photo depicts.
This bull does not take offerings lightly.
Whilst investors hold out their hands to feed the bull, the bull’s crown serves as a cautionary tale.
If we go with each of the crown’s skeleton heads as five cautionary themes, the first one is certainly Semiconductors (SMH).
As the four indices closed green, SMH closed red and back into a Warning Phase.
The second skeleton cautions buyers with the resistance levels or the fast-moving average in each of the indices.
Great to see some green out of Nasdaq (QQQ ).
However, at this point, it looks more like a bounce off the 50 daily moving average support.
QQQ has yet to clear the overhead fast-moving average, now sloping down.
Same is true for the Russell’s, S&P 500 and the Dow.
Does the market need Semiconductors before it can move up further?
Furthermore, with 2 palpable skeletons on the bull’s crown, what do the other 3 represent?
The 3rd skeleton is the rising interest rates and firming dollar.
The 20+ Year Treasuries or TLT, are sitting in a critical area. On the weekly chart, 116 has been a rock of support.
Should that level break, we are looking at a monster head and shoulders top that could bring TLTs down to 100. That means, of course, borrowing and American goods cost more. That will impact the market.
Secondly, the dollar’s rise has a similar impact, not to mention the pressure it puts on commodity prices.
The 4th skeleton head is crude oil.
With many commodities declining in price, oil is rising. While that may be good for parts of the US that count on oil revenue, it’s not good for consumers. Rising dollar, rising rates, and rising oil prices-a sardonic trifecta.
The 5th skeleton head represents emerging markets. If we look at EEM, it made a new 2018 low today. Regardless of the hype, we are a global economy. Should EEM continue to fall, that means so does global demand. And yes, even for American goods.
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