Traders Lose Faith In Fed – Shift Rate-Hike Bets To December

While a June rate-hike is baked in the cake no matter how badly the economic data that The Fed is “dependent” upon collapses, it appears traders are losing faith in the rest of the year as the odds of a hike occurring in December is now above that of September (as both drop to around 25%).

As economic data has crashed since The Fed hiked rates in March, so the markets expectations has dropped to just 1.44 rate-hikes this year (one in June guaranteed), well below The Fed’s guidance of 2 more rate-hikes minimum…

But perhaps more notable is the shift in timing as September odds tumble and December moves ahead…

And Eurodollar options traders are increasingly positioining for The Fed to disappoint…

But banks don’t care.