Trading Support & Resistance - Jan. 7

This week we’ll begin with our monthly and weekly forecasts of the currency pairs worth watching. The first part of our forecast is based upon our research of the past 16 years of Forex prices, which show that the following methodologies have all produced profitable results:

Trading the two currencies that are trending the most strongly over the past 3 months.

Assuming that trends are usually ready to reverse after 12 months.

Trading against very strong counter-trend movements by currency pairs made during the previous week.

Buying currencies with high interest rates and selling currencies with low interest rates.

Let’s take a look at the relevant data of currency price changes and interest rates to date, which we compiled using a trade-weighted index of the major global currencies:

Monthly Forecast January 2018

For the month of January, we forecast that the best trades will be long EUR/USD and long GBP/USD. For the month of December, we forecast that the best trades would be long EUR/USD, long GBP/USD, and long USD/JPY. The final performance was as follows:

Weekly Forecast 7th January 2018

Last week, we made no forecast, as there was no newsletter. In the previous newsletter which we released, we forecast that the GBP/AUD and GBP/NZD currency crosses would rise in value, while the NZD/USD currency pair would fall in value. GBP/USD fell by 0.52%, GBP/NZD fell by 2.81%, and NZD/USD rose by 2.24%, producing an average loss of 1.86%.

This week, we make no forecast, as there were no strong counter-trend movements last week.

This week has been dominated by relative strength in the Canadian Dollar, and relative weakness in the Japanese Yen.

Volatility was low, with 29% of the major or minor currency pairs changing in value by more than 1%. Volatility is likely to even lower over this coming week.

Key Support/Resistance Levels for Popular Pairs

We teach that trades should be entered and exited at or very close to key support and resistance levels. There are certain key support and resistance levels that should be watched on the more popular currency pairs this week, which might result in either reversals or breakouts: