Trucking Shows Strong But Slowing Growth In August 2018

Headline data for truck shipments showed strong (but slower) growth in August 2018.

Analyst Opinion of Truck Transport

I tend to put a heavier weight on the CASS index which continues to show a stronger rate of growth improvement year-over-year. CASS rate of improvement is 6.0 % YoY whilst the ATA is 4.5 % YoY.

It should be pointed out that the trucking movements are improving YoY – and the likely reason is the shift from box stores to eRetailers.

Econintersect tries to validate truck data across data sources. It appears this month that jobs growth says the trucking industry employment levels rate of growth improved in July – which is consistent with both ATA and Cass. Please note using BLS employment data in real time is risky, as their data is normally backward adjusted (sometimes significantly).

ATA Trucking

American Trucking Associations’ advanced seasonally adjusted (SA) For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index decreased 1.8% in August after increasing 1.9% in July. In August, the index equaled 112.9 (2015=100), down from 115 in July.

Said ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello:

Truck freight remained solid in August despite the monthly decline. However, the year-over-year increase was the smallest since July 2017. The deceleration in the year-over-year increases has begun due to more difficult year-over-year comparisons. It was a year ago when freight began to surge. We should all expect smaller year-over-year gains going forward than we witnessed over the last year.

ATA Truck tonnage this month

Compared with August 2017, the SA index rose 4.5%, down from July’s 8.6% year-over-year increase. Year-to-date, compared with the same period last year, tonnage increased 7.6%, far outpacing the annual gain of 3.8% in 2017.

source: ATA

CASS FREIGHT INDEX REPORT