Twenty-First Century Fox Inc.: Bireme Capital Sees Great Value In ‘Hidden Assets’

Bireme Capital is bullish on Twenty-First Century Fox Inc (Nasdaq: FOXA). In its Q3 investor letter, the hedge fund discussed Twenty-First Century Fox and other companies. In this article, we will take a look at Bireme Capital’s investment thesis on Twenty-First Century Fox.

Here is what Bireme Capital said in the letter:

Twenty-First Century Fox (21CF) is a media conglomerate whose main businesses include: 20th Century Fox Movie and TV Production, FOX Broadcasting, Fox News, Fox Sports (FS1, FS2, and Regional Sports channels such as the YES Network), FX, FXX, SKY TV (European Satellite TV), STAR TV (Indian Satellite TV), National Geographic, and a 30% stake in Hulu.

Over the long term, 21CF has seen substantial growth, as their focus on news and sports has proven prescient. Since 2004, Operating Income has grown from $2B to $6.6B, or a 9.8% annual rate. They consistently garner increasing revenues per subscriber from the cable companies that resell their TV channels, and their current contracts (per company guidance) indicate this ought to continue in the future.

The company also has some substantial assets that are “hidden” from cursory analysis, in the sense that they do not contribute much to current earnings (or even contribute losses). The most valuable is their ownership of a dominant satellite TV provider in India: Star. Star India is the country’s largest provider of pay TV services, reaching 650m people per month. This translates to substantial revenue, and as recently as two weeks ago CEO Lachlan Murdoch commented that they are “very confident” that Star India can do $1B of profit by 2020. At that point the business would be worth $20B if it garners the 20x EBITDA multiple the market currently places on their main competitor, Zee Entertainment. This equates to greater than $10 per FOXA share, a material amount relative to the $26.4 price at the end of the quarter.

We think the value of 21CF’s hidden assets implies that we are paying about 6-8x earnings for the core media business. This is a multiple we are very happy to pay for 21CF’s best-in-class media assets. 21CF is currently our largest position.