New homes sales disappointed with the M/M figure off 11.5%. The Northeast experienced the biggest decline with a 61% drop. a fall of this magnitude is not unheard of. The Census Bureau revised the previous two months figures lower. Analysts offered several reasons for the drop, ranging from low inventory to tough credit conditions. However, other housing numbers, including new home prices, are positive, meaning this figure is probably temporary. Bill McBride at Calculated Risk pointed out that the Y/Y figures are still very strong:
Even though the September report was disappointing, sales are still up solidly year-to-date. The Census Bureau reported that new home sales this year, through September, were 392,000, not seasonally adjusted (NSA). That is up 17.6% from 333,000 sales during the same period of 2014 (NSA). That is a strong year-over-year gain for the first nine months of 2015!
And as the following chart from his blog shows, each month this year is stronger than the previous years:
Finally, it appears the homeownership rate may have hit bottom. If so, this means the low level of new homes for sale could lead to a large increase in new construction for the foreseeable future.
The 1.2% decline in new orders for durable goods indicates the industrial recession continues. Ex-transport, the figure was off .4% and ex-defense the number was down 2%. As shown in the following FRED chart, this data series has printed between 220,000 and 240,000 for 3½ years:
There are several intertwining causes for this weakness: the strong dollar, weak international economies (especially developing markets) and weakness in the oil patch.
The 3Q GDP advance estimate was 1.5%. Consumer spending was very strong, up 3.2%. Spending on durable goods increased 4.5% while non-durable spending gained 6.7%. The biggest reason for the drop was an inventory correction, which subtracted 1.44% from output. Had this number been 0, GDP would have been 2.94%. According to Bloomberg:
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