One day after the biggest jump in stocks in two months on what has still been an undetermined catalyst, overnight global equities did a U-turn with European stocks falling toward a one-month low and U.S. stock index futures declining, as crude oil dropped toward $44 a barrel. A driver the move lower was a sharp reversal in the USDJPY which dropped 100 pips from yesterday’s highs which took places just as Goldman predicted the USDJPY has finally bottomed, facilitated by a weaker dollar (also following a Goldman report yesterday forecasting the USD was about to surge).
S&P 500 (SPY) futures fell 0.2% after Walt Disney Co. (DIS) tumbled 5.5% in premarket New York trading after posting second-quarter results that missed analysts’ estimates. Macy’s Inc. (M) is among companies releasing earnings Wednesday. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 lost 0.7%. A gauge of lenders fell the most on the index, with Raiffeisen Bank International AG tumbling 8.6 percent after saying it’s considering merging with its parent company to ease the pressure of regulatory requirements. ABN Amro lost 2.4 percent. Total SA and Eni SpA dragged energy producers down as oil prices retreated.
Commodities were once again at the forefront of the action, with industrial metals from aluminum to zinc climbing as Glencore Plc (GLNCY) forecast demand to exceed supply. Soybeans, silver and gold also gained, while crude fell before U.S. inventories data. As the chart below shows, however, the main driver of market action remains the dollar, which impacts both commodities, and risk as the two continue to move broadly in line all year.
In an amusing twist, China’s Economic Information Daily publication wrote a front page article saying China should avoid short-term A-Share intervention, adding that state-backed funds such as the China Securities Finance Corp. should be long-term investors in the A-share market and avoid short-term intervention, adding that CSFC traded stocks frequently during 1Q, which artificially distorted the market: report.
Aside from central bank intervention in various markets, skepticism still remained: “earnings so far have been OK but not strong enough to deliver a real upside for stock prices,” said Ralf Zimmermann, a strategist at Bankhaus Lampe in Dusseldorf, Germany. “What is still really missing from this environment is a notable rally in the banking stocks, which is an important driver for any stock market rally. With oil moving down, it’s negative for oil producers.”
Elsewhere, the Lyxor ETF Brazil rose 1.3 percent before a Senate vote that would force Rousseff out of office and into an impeachment trial. The Philippine Stock Exchange Index surged 3.1 percent, extending Tuesday’s 2.6 percent rally, as Rodrigo Duterte, a tough-talking mayor of Davao city, won Monday’s presidential vote. The peso gained 0.4 percent on Wednesday.
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Looking at regional markets, Asia stocks traded mixed with most of the major bourses taking the impetus from a firm Wall St. close. ASX 200 (+0.6%) traded higher after yesterday’s energy advances which saw WTI regain the USD 44/bbl level, while a recovery in basic materials also benefited large cap miners with BHP Billiton (BHP) surging nearly 4%. Nikkei 225 (+0.1%) was positive, although the index pulled off its best levels as JPY strength pared some exporter gains, while participants also digested a slew of earnings. Chinese markets were mixed with the Shanghai Comp (+0.2%) higher after the PBoC upped its liquidity injection. 10yr JGBs saw subdued trade as a mildly positive risk-tone in Japan dampens demand for government paper, while the BoJ’s presence in the market for JPY 1.24tr1 in JGBs stemmed any significant downside.
Japan PM Abe adviser Hamada said that Japan retains right for FX intervention and Japan should intervene if JPY strengthens rapidly to 100.00 against USD. However, Hamada also further stated that he does not think JPY will appreciate much from between 105.00-110.00 levels.
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