No change is expected in US industrial production in tomorrow’s August report vs. the previous month, according to The Capital Spectator’s average point forecast for several econometric estimates. The average prediction for a flat performance compares with a robust 0.6% increase in July.
Meanwhile, recent surveys of economists are projecting varying degrees of loss for the monthly comparison in August.
Here’s a closer look at the numbers, followed by brief summaries of the methodologies behind the forecasts that are used to calculate The Capital Spectator’s average prediction:
R-1: A linear regression model using the ISM Manufacturing Index to predict industrial production. The historical relationship between the variables is applied to the more recently updated ISM data to project industrial production. The computations are run in R.
R-4: A linear regression model using four variables to project industrial production: US private payrolls, an index of weekly hours worked for production/nonsupervisory employees in private industries, the ISM Manufacturing Index, and the stock market (Wilshire 5000). The historical relationships between the variables are applied to the more recently updated data to project industrial production. The computations are run in R.
VAR-1: A vector autoregression model using the ISM Manufacturing Index to predict industrial production. VAR analyzes the interdependent relationships of the variables through history. The forecasts are run in R using the “vars” package.
VAR-7: A vector autoregression model using seven variables to project industrial production: US private payrolls, an index of weekly hours worked for production/nonsupervisory employees in private industries, the ISM Manufacturing Index, the stock market (Wilshire 5000), real personal income less current transfer receipts, real personal consumption expenditures, and oil prices. VAR analyzes the interdependent relationships through history. The forecasts are run in R using the “vars” package.
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