Some good news from the US: retail sales are up 0.2% and with an upwards revision. The control group is up 0.6%, double the expectations. Also other figures look good.

The US dollar is slightly stronger across the board, with safe havens extending their losses

US retail sales for January 2016 were expected to rise 0.1% after a slide of 0.1% in December (before revisions). Core sales were predicted to remain flat after -0.1%, the control group to rise 0.3% after -0.3% and ex-gas/autos was flat last time. This is a top tier release as consumption is a huge part of the US economy.

Towards the release, the mood was improving, with the safe haven EUR and JPY retreating against the USD while oil and commodity currencies lifted their heads.

Data (updated)

  • Headline retail sales previous -0.1%, expected +0.1%, actual: 0.2%, previous revised to +0.2%.
  • Core: previous 0%, expected -0.1%, actual: +0.1%, previous revised up to +0.1%.
  • Control group: previous -0.3%, expected +0.3%, actual: +0.6%.
  • Ex gas/autos, previous 0%
  • Import prices: previous -1.2%, expected -1.4%, actual +0.4%, previous revised up to +0.1%, actual -1.1%

    • Currencies

  • EUR/USD traded around 1.1270 before the publication, falling on the improving mood after OK GDP data. The pair is down to 1.1230, nearly 150 pips down from the highs seen yesterday.
  • GBP/USD was around 1.4510 and is down to 1.14480.
  • USD/JPY was moving up from the abyss on rumored BOJ intervention yesterday at 112.70. The pair is at 113.10, some sigh of relief in Tokyo.
  • USD/CAD traded at 1.39 amid slightly recovering oil prices and is stable around this level as oil looks even better.
  • AUD/USD was in the middle of the range, at 0.71 and is slightly under the level.
  • NZD/USD at 0.6656 and loses 10 pips

    • It seems to be mostly a story of the safe haven currencies being beaten.

    We later have another look at the US consumer via the University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer confidence figure for February.

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