Current US unemployment statistics, for last month, suggest that employment in the USA has fallen to a level before the onset of the Global Financial Crisis which started in 2007-08. The official US figure for unemployment suggests that 4.5% of the active US workforce is registered unemployed and actively seeking work. The figure improved over the February level of 4.7% and is the lowest unemployment figure seen since May 2007.
However, the decline comes in the face of disappointing job creation data for March. March saw 98000 new jobs created which was almost half of the number that analysts had anticipated; roughly the same level as seen in the first two months of the year when job creation passed the 200000 mark for both months.
The reading of those in work, or actively seeking work remained constant at 63%. The unemployment figure is regarded as being “full employment” which some economists define as any figure below a threshold of five percent unemployment.
The relatively week March job creation figure was partially blamed on the winter which saw a major storm in NE America and a run of low temperatures which would have made casual employment of workers working outside less likely. With a growing working-age population in the USA, the economy needs to generate 75000 to 100000 jobs each month to stand still.
The unemployment statistics do not take account of people in part-time work that wish to work full time, nor do they consider unemployed people who are not registered as actively seeking employment. Analysts do not believe that the latest (relatively weak) job creation figures will derail the Federal Reserve’s policy to increase interest rates further this year. Most analysts are predicting a further two 0.25% hikes in the main interest rate before the end of 2017.
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