Dollar/CAD moved back up, mostly a result of the risk-off atmosphere and also due to a mixed Canadian jobs report. The upcoming week features Canadian inflation and other events. Here are the highlights and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD.

A local crisis in Turkey became global after the European Central Bank expressed concern about banks’ stability. The risk-off atmosphere already built up by souring US-China relations, pushed the dollar and yen higher across the board. The Canadian dollar, a risk currency, suffered. Canada reported a gain of 54.1K jobs and a drop in the unemployment rate to 5.8%. These upbeat numbers masked an increase in part-time positions and a slowdown in wages. Oil prices did not help the C$. NAFTA talks continue, and this remains positive, but there is no breakthrough between US and Mexico while Canada is waiting on the sidelines.

Updates:

USD/CAD daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

  • Manufacturing Sales: Thursday, 12:30. Sales at the manufacturing level are eyed for future consumer economic activity. May saw an increase of 1.4%, above expectations. June could see a slide.
  • ADP Non-Farm Payrolls: Thursday, 12:30. ADP, a large provider of private sector payrolls, reports changes in employment after the official government data. Nevertheless, it is eyed by markets. After four months of increases, ADP reported a drop of 10.5K in June. July could see an increase.
  • inflation: Friday, 12:30. Canada’s headline CPI rose by 0.1% m/m and 2.5% in June, fueled by energy prices. We could see a more moderate increase now. Core CPI advanced by 0.1% m/m as well, but only 1.3% annualized. Canada usually publishes the retail sales report alongside the inflation one. This time is different and allows the CPI data to have its say. Also note the BOC’s various core inflation measures such as the Common CPI, the Median CPI, and Trimmed CPI. All are flirting with the 2% level.
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