USD/CHF Rally? It's Just May

EUR/USD

Weekly

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

-FXTW wrote last week that “EUR/USD broke through (resistance) on an intraweek basis but finished the week with a long upper wick that warns of a ‘bull trap’. It seems right to be (long term) bullish given the 31 year trendline support but the breakout may have to wait a bit. As always, define your risk points (read more about traits of successful traders here).” EUR/USD followed through on last week’s reversal. Bulls are probably ‘trapped’ until the mid-1.1000s.

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GBP/USD

Weekly

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

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-Cable carved a key reversal last week. Trade remains constructive for a run at trendline resistance (now mid-1.4900s) but watch for support at the internal trendline that crosses through inflection points since September. FXTW would like to see support register at that line in order to maintain a constructive view. Remember, there is a 96 month (8 year) cycle low count.

AUD/USD

Monthly

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

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-FXTW maintained throughout April that “risk of a top is heightened given COT considerations. The combination of resistance, COT (overheated), and the longer term cycle analysis (1 week off) indicates renewed downside potential.” AUD/USD has certainly responded. Allowing for gyrations between .7100-.7200 (support within the range) and .7500 (resistance within the range), trend lows over the summer may need to register before the major low is in place.

NZD/USD

Weekly

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

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-The last update noted that “NZD/USD has ‘faked out’ FXTW for about the last 2 months. In any case, NZD/USD is pressing against an important technical level marked by former support (former downtrend support) and ‘new’ uptrend resistance (channel). If NZD/USD is going lower, it needs to do so now.” Kiwi realized its largest 1 week drop since January last week but was little changed this week. Are the fake-outs over? No idea but risk looks lower from here.