USD Crashes Ahead Of FOMC Minutes – A Buy Opportunity?

The US dollar is sliding across the board. The bigger breakout is seen in USD/JPY which digs lower to levels last seen in October 2014, but also other currencies are celebrating against the US dollar.

The Federal Reserve releases the minutes from the March 16th meeting. In that meeting, and in a consequent speech by Fed Chair Janet Yellen, the tone was extremely dovish. However, in between and also after the “glass half empty” speech in New York, Yellen’s colleagues took a more hawkish stance, and that includes some doves.

So, the minutes could be more hawkish than this dollar crash suggests. Isn’t there a buy opportunity here? Nothing is certain, but the magnitude of this fall of a currency which is still on a tightening path, seems exaggerated.

USD/JPY reached a low of 109.58, below yet another “line in the sand” of 1.10, which is below the 1.11 line in the sand and the previous 1.16 level. It looks more like quick sand.

This is a very clear crash and this pair is not alone:

Here is the chart of EUR/USD. The pair has reached a high of 1.1430, not too far from the 1.1460 level that capped the pair around a year ago. There was no euro-specific news of note today. However, it is always important to remember that that the common currency is naturally bid due to the positive trade balance.

The monetary policy divergence between the ECB and the Fed is still here: the Fed is still set to tighten and the ECB is printing money at a faster pace. However, the Fed has lowered its tightening pace (according to Yellen) and the ECB is done for now (according to Draghi). This may explain some, but not all of the move.

Further resistance awaits at 1.15 and 1.1620. Support is at 1.1335, which is where the pair catapulted from before making the big move to the upside.