View From The Hill: October 29, 2015

Commentary and Performance

After digesting yesterday’s FOMC interest rate policy announcement, the market assigned a higher probability to a rate hike in December-2015 or early 2016. Today’s positive economic data may have exceeded any negative news, but the bearish overweight of the GDP and Home Price Index reports were enough to neutralize any bullish considerations.

The SP-500 closed @ 2089.41 (-0.94 / -0.04%). The Nasdaq-100 ended @ 4670.77 (-7.81 / -0.71%). The Rusell-2000 was the most vulnerable to selling and finished @ 1165.63 (-13.09 / -1.11%).

The downtrend has not changed for the VIX despite its closing @ 14.61 (+0.28 / +1.95%).

The bond market may be taking the Federal Reserve seriously as interest rates crossed above their 55-day moving averages for treasury notes and bonds with the 10-Yr @ 21.73 (+0.81 / +3.87%) and the 30-Yr @ 29.65 (+1.02 / +3.56%).

The US Dollar Index encountered some minor resistance and closed @ 97.21 (-0.43 / -0.44%).

Gold crossed below its 22-day moving average to close @ 1145.50 (-10.20 / -0.88%). WTI Crude Oilconceded all of its earlier gains to close @ 46.06 (-0.11 / -0.24%).

The Dow Jones Real Estate Index completed its fourth day of consolidation @ 297.49 (-0.28 / -0.09).The Dow Jones Home Construction Index simply could not ignore today’s weak housing data as it halted its recent uptrend and violated support at its 22-day moving average to close @ 570.96 (-17.04 / -2.90%).

Daily Chart Analysis

Momentum took a rest today as the number of stocks holding support at their 20 and 50 day moving averages has receded by a few percentage points. We are now approaching resistance at the bottom of the uptrend channel and must await Friday’s weekly perspective. No further comments…