I have been researching the short-term trend, trying to get a better definition of what it means. And right in the middle of this research, the DecisionPoint site decides to stop maintaining the PMO index! Arg!
It isn’t completely clear if they are discontinuing the index, or if they are just having problems. The support team at stockcharts.com is not exactly helpful.
For now, I think I am going to stop posting about the short-term until the PMO index is restored, or I figure out an alternative.
The Leader List
China dropped off the leader list. It doesn’t look particularly weak, but the leaders have to perform in order stay on the top.
A sure sign that the medium-term trend is weakening is that the defensive ETFs are starting to perform well, such as Utilities, Real Estate (REITs) and Pharmaceuticals.
Semiconductors looked like they might break down today, and that would be very bad for the overall market.
SOXX found support at the 50-day, and then reversed nicely. This is a very important index. Keep an eye on it.
Brazil could be breaking down.
Biotech broke down yesterday.
Bottom line: We are overdue for a market pullback. These charts above are weak from a medium-term perspective. We get one or two major pull backs every year, and most of the time they are buying opportunities.
Outlook
The long-term outlook is positive.
The medium-term trend is down as of March 21
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