Wednesday – The Medium-Term Trend For March 8

It looks like the short-term trend has peaked. Actually, it probably peaked a few days ago.

The market advance/declines and up/down volume are pointing lower.

Junk bonds have been hinting at some weakness for a couple days. Small caps are following junk bonds lower, but so far they are just testing the bottom of their range.

The bullish percent has broken down below its range, and it looks headed lower.

Inflation-sensitive areas of the market are getting hit hard.

It is too soon to call the top of the medium-term trend, but the indicators look toppy. 

For instance, the number of new highs has dried up.

This indicator let me down last month. It appeared headed lower, but did a reversal. 

Now it looks ready to head lower again.

Sectors

Higher rates are pushing the dollar higher, and the higher dollar is in control of the performance of the various areas of the market.

No surprise, the inflation-sensitive stocks are being pushed lower while the rate-sensitive areas are being pushed higher… along with the areas that are least impacted by the dollar.

Last week, I thought the semis looked tired, but they are holding their own. Small caps haven’t broken down, but they have clearly lost their leadership.