What A Dictator Wants

Apparently, President Donald Trump knows what a dictator wants. They want to be treated rough. Instead of being coddled and respected, they want to make sure that the guy they are dealing with is as tough as he is, and only then can you gain his respect, or maybe his fear. Instead of starting a nuclear war, President Trump’s tough talk and harsh sanctions has brought Kim Jong-un to the negotiating table. North Korea has agreed to all of the U.S. demands as in stopping nuclear missile tests as well as setting the stage for talks of the denuclearization of the entire North Korean peninsula while the U.S. keeps all economic sanctions in place.

While we can be under no illusions that this could be North Korea’s ploy to gain more time, it is very possible that North Korea did not want to continue to rattle President Trumps cage and enter a war it knows it could never win. President Trump’s critics, of course, are shocked over this development, but they should not be. Remember, President Ronald Reagan was widely criticized for calling the Soviet Union, the “evil empire”. Instead of starting a war it led to an era of peace and lowered the risk of nuclear war for a generation that used to have to hide under their desks for nuclear drills. One would be wise to remember Presidents Reagan’s policy of “trust but verify”. Yet with North Korea it should be, don’t trust and verify.

Oil bears got an early Easter gift from The Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) and the Department of Energy (DOE). While the oil trade was starting to worry about plunging oil supply in Cushing Oklahoma and the very real possibility that some oil refineries would run short on supply after refinery maintenance season, the DOE came to the rescue of oil bears. The DOE announced the sale of 7 million barrels of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve from 3 strategic reserve sites.

While the move is bearish in the short term it is bullish for the long term. If refiners feel the need to go to the bullpen and buy oil from the SPR this early, it is a clear sign of oil market tightness. At this time the SPR is only authorized to sell 18 million more barrels of oil which is less than one days U.S. supply needs. So, refiners may be able to buy an extra day of supply, but it does not change the fact that oil refiners are facing the tightest oil supply situation we have seen in years. While it is possible that the government may authorize more oil sales at some point they will have to remember that the SPR as Senator Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) has said is not a ‘piggy bank” to pay for other initiatives. It is there for our national security.