What Can We Expect From The Fed Minutes?

The Federal Reserve releases the minutes from its September meeting today, Wednesday. In September’s meeting, the Fed insisted that another rate hike is coming in December and provided support to the dollar. Here are two opinions:

Here is their view, courtesy of eFXnews:

USD: 2 Key Things To Expect From The FOMC Minutes On Wed – SEB

SEB Research highlights 2 key points to expect from tomorrow’s FOMC minutes from the September meeting.

1- “The most interesting aspect of the minutes will likely be the discussion about temporary or structural explanations for the weak inflation and the Fed’s view of the Phillips curve’s association between a tighter labor market and rising inflation.

2- The minutes probably will provide little new on the balance sheet normalization,” SEB notes.

USD: What To Expect From FOMC Minutes? – Barclays

Barclays Capital Research expects the FOMC minutes from the September meeting (Wed) to show that most participants see recent disinflation as largely driven by transitory factors.

“We expect the discussion to remain focused on inflation and its shortfall relative to what the Fed’s Phillips curve framework would suggest, but we believe most participants will view the unexplained weakness as dissipating over time, thereby permitting a return of inflation to the target.

The minutes may indicate that members preferred to reduce their estimate of the longrun neutral rate of interest as opposed to halting the normalization process.

Elsewhere, we expect the minutes to include discussion as to why it was time to begin balance sheet runoff and how members see the balance of risks to the outlook for the US economy,” Barclays adds.