What Happened To The Stock Market Crash Experts Were Predicting?

Any jackass can kick a barn down, but it takes a carpenter to build it. – Sam Rayburn

One jackass (oops we mean expert) after another has been predicting that this market is ready to crash. The problem is that these brain surgeons have been making this argument for so long it almost sounds like the definition of insanity. Insanity boils down to doing the same thing over and over again and hoping for a new outcome. These predictions are so off the mark that they make a broken clock look fantastic (which happens to be right once or twice a day depending on whether you follow military time or not).  This market is unlike any other market; it has moved from being the most hated bull market to the most insane bull market of all time. In such an environment technical analysis is technically trash and fundamentals are fundamentally flawed. In fact, for the most part, market technicians have no idea of what they are talking about; they figure that by studying someone else’s theory or drawing squiggly lines on some chart they can decipher the market.  

We have dealt with at least 15 so-called expert technicians who claimed to have found the Holy Grail; in the end, their theory was full of holes and could not account for sudden and rapid trendTechnicals do not drive the markets, and neither do fundamentals; emotions drive the market. changes. Understand the emotion, and you can identify the trend. Identify the trend, and you can determine the primary direction of the market. If the trend is up, then you don’t need to worry about crashes or correction; the market will not crash when the primary trend is up. It will, however, experience corrections, all of which will prove to be buying opportunities until the trend changes.  Simple, prudent money management skills will protect your profits and reduce your losses.  

Fundamental analysis is even worse; at least technical analysis can be useful when combined with sentiment analysis. Fundamentals boil down to poring over standard data, and you are usually looking at what happened and not what will happen. We will not spend more time on that topic as in our opinion fundamental analysis is in today’s markets is a total waste of time.