What Puzzle? – Financial Review

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DOW + 91 = 17,823
SPX + 7 = 2089
NAS + 31 = 5104
10 YR YLD + .01 = 2.26%
OIL – .15 = 40.39
GOLD – 4.80 = 1078.00
SILV – .16 = 14.23 

The S&P gained 3.3% for the week, its best showing since December. The Dow rose 3.4% for the week and the Nasdaq added 3.6%. And now we begin the Santa Claus rally on Wall Street, which kicks off with the Turkey Shoot. For 35 years prior to 1987, the Wednesday before and the Friday after Thanksgiving combined were up 33 times.

The only declines were in 1964 and 1965. Subsequently, this trend changed. In the 28 years since 1987, there have been 12 declines and 16 advances. As Thanksgiving bullishness lost steam in 1987, the rally afterwards occurred more frequently.

Since 1987, DJIA has logged gains in 22 of 28 years from the close on Friday after Thanksgiving to year-end. The S&P 500 is up 0.5% in November and 1.5% thus far in 2015. There are 28 trading days remaining in 2015.

And going back to 1950, December is the best month of the year for the S&P 500 with the final 30 days of a year producing a mean gain of 2.36%. There could still be a black swan or some other exogenous event. This does not mean that we are guaranteed a rally, only that the probabilities are good.

ECB President Mario Draghi says the European Central Bank is prepared to deploy its full range of stimulus measures to fight low inflation. The comments from Draghi, echoed by other top ECB officials, suggest support among the highest ranks of the central bank for expanding its quantitative easing program and cutting the deposit rate further. 

Under the ECB’s bond buying program which was launched in March, the central bank is buying $64 billion a month in mostly government bonds. It is slated to run at least through September 2016, but many analysts expect the ECB to extend the program beyond this date.

Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer says the Fed has done everything we can to avoid surprising the markets and governments” about the first hike in interest rates in nine years. It’s looking more and more like a December rate hike is a done deal, but Fischer said no final decisions have been made and officials continue to scrutinize the data. Fischer said it remains to be seen whether the emerging market countries in Asia and the world are sufficiently prepared for the potential capital flows and market adjustments so that there are no major macroeconomic consequences.