If the doors of perception were cleansed everything would appear to man as it is, infinite. For man has closed himself up, till he sees all things thru chinks of his cavern. – William Blake

2106 started with all the Drs of Gloom stating that oil was heading lower and many even predicted that it would trade down to $10.00.It was kind of interesting to watch this circus as there is a saying the cure for low prices is usually low prices. It would have made sense to take a firm stance against oil when it was trading above $100, but not when it was trading in the $30.00 ranges. These same experts were busy proclaiming higher prices when oil was trading north of $100.00. Only when oil was close to putting in a bottom, did they muster the courage to issue even lower prices; they would have been well served by simply keeping quiet. Experts were all trying to outdo each other; each one is releasing lower prices and a gloomier scenario.Here are some examples of the stories being put out at the time:

Get Ready for $10 Oil: Bloomberg on Feb 2016

Oil could crash to $10 a barrel, warn investment bank bears:  telegraph.co.uk on Jan 2016

Oil Seen Heading to $20 by Morgan Stanley on Dollar Strength: Bloomberg on Jan 2016

Goldman Sees Risk of Oil Below $20: Bloomberg Feb 2016

At that point, we knew that a bottom was close at hand and on the 20th of January, 2016 we penned the first of many articles on oil.This is what we said back in Jan:

As it has closed below the psychological level of $30 on a weekly basis, it is likely it will experience one more downward wave before a tradable bottom is in place. A move to the $23-$25 ranges is now a strong possibility, and as long as oil does not close below $23.00 on a weekly basis, oil will start putting in a slow bottoming formation. Once a bottom is in, do not expect miracles from oil, trading will probably be limited to a tight range of $24.00-$36.00 for some time. Only a monthly close above $40 will signal that the trading range is going to shift to a slightly higher zone of $36.00-$58.00 with a possible overshoot to $65.00.Full Story  

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