Why Macron Is A Risky Bet For France And For Europe

About two months ago I wrote about Emmanuel Macron as a risk, rather than a saviour. Today, following his 1st round presidential victory in France, I feel even more that he represents a risk that is unappreciated. Here’s why.

As I put in March, “Macron as President is a ‘bad’ outcome for stability since he has no political base. his election would create uncertainty because it would make the likelihood of a weak presidency greater.” And I what I meant by that is that Macron has no MPs to support him and his legislative agenda. If his reformist agenda is to be successful, he needs legislative support. And that’s hard to get when you don’t have a party apparatus behind you.

Tony Barber at the FT put it really well in two paragraphs that highlight both how Macron represents the status quo and how he also is an outsider legislatively:

“it is misleading to portray Mr Macron as a complete outsider. He is, in fact, the preferred candidate of wide sections of the French political and technocratic elite who saw several years ago that the old party system was breaking down and were on the hunt for a candidate who could be presented to French voters as a fresh face. He is a product of the finest French educational institutions, including the École Nationale d’Administration, the training ground of the elite, and served François Hollande, the outgoing president, both as a specialist adviser and as economy minister.

Should he win as expected on May 7, Mr Macron may not find governing easy. Sheer political momentum may help many candidates of his En Marche! (On the Move) party to win seats in the June parliamentary elections, but an outright majority may elude him. The most probable outcome is a legislature in which a large, centrist “presidential” bloc supports Mr Macron, but critics assail him from the far right, the conservative right and the left.”

Now, current President Hollande made a lot of promises about adding stimulus and creating jobs when he was running for Presidency in 2012. Then he ran up against the strictures of the Eurozone’s stability and growth and was stymied in executing his agenda. His Presidency quickly became the most unpopular in French history.