Will $20 Crude Soon Be Reality? Short These ETFs

Oil has been the most perplexing commodity of 2015 with big busts and occasional rises seen in a very short period of time. In particular, oil tanked to a seven-year low on Monday after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) failed to address the growing supply glut. Crude plunged 6% to $37.50 and Brent oil tumbled more than 5% to $40.73 (read: Oil ETFs to Watch as Crude Slips to Below $40 Again).

What Happened?

At its meeting on Friday, OPEC members decided to continue pumping near-record levels of oil to maintain market share against non-OPEC members like Russia and U.S. in an already oversupplied market. Iran is also looking to boost its production once the Tehran sanctions are lifted. As per the Iran oil minister, Bijan Namdar Zanganeh, production will likely increase by 500,000 barrels a day within a week after the relaxation in sanctions and by 1 million barrels a day within a month (read: 4 ETFs in Focus As Iran Reaches Nuclear Deal).

Oil production in the U.S. has also been on the rise and is hovering around its record level. Further, the latest bearish inventory storage report from EIA has deepened the global supply glut. The data showed that U.S. crude stockpiles unexpectedly rose by 1.2 million barrels in the week (ending November 27). This marks the tenth consecutive week of increase in crude supplies. Total inventory was 489.4 million barrels, which is near the highest level in at least 80 years.

On the other hand, demand for oil across the globe looks tepid given slower growth in most developed and developing economies. In particular, persistent weakness in the world’s biggest consumer of energy – China – will continue to weigh on demand outlook. Notably, manufacturing activity in China shrunk for the fourth straight month in November to a 3-year low.

The International Monetary Fund recently cut its global growth forecast for this year and the next by 0.2% each. This is the fourth cut in 12 months with big reductions in oil-dependent economies, such as Canada, Brazil, Venezuela, Russia and Saudi Arabia. That being said, the International Energy Agency (IEA) expects the global oil supply glut to persist through 2016 as worldwide demand will soften next year to 1.2 million barrels a day after climbing to the five-year high of 1.8 million barrels this year.

In addition, a strengthening dollar backed by the prospect of the first interest rate hike in almost a decade as soon as two weeks is weighing heavily on oil price. This suggests that the worst for oil is not over yet with some forecasting a further drop in the days ahead. Notably, the analyst Goldman (GS – Analyst Report) and OPEC predict that crude price will slide to $20 per barrel next year (read: Still Believe in Goldman’s $20 Oil? Go Short With These ETFs).

How to Play It?

Given the bearish fundamentals, the appeal for oil will remain dull in the coming months. This has compelled investors to think about shorting oil as a way to take advantage of the strong dollar and commodity weakness. While futures contract or short-stock approaches are possibilities, there is a host of lower risk inverse oil ETF options that prevent investors from losing more than their initial investment.

Below, we highlight some of those and the key differences between them: