Everyone dreams of warm winters. Moderate temperatures, sunshine, sweet breezes and best of all, low heating bills. Most of American is experiencing mild weather systems and the people are loving it.
Meteorologists attribute the unseasonable weather to El Nino, which occurs when winds in the equatorial Pacific slow down or reverse direction. That warms water over a vast area, which in turn can upend weather around the world. El Nino is forecast to be particularly strong this winter.
So while a warmer winter is bringing relief to some people, it is already having a variety of effects on commodities in different parts of the world. Commodities have taken a beating of late, with oil prices hitting rock bottom and an unsettled Chinese economy providing less demand than it has over the years. And the recent rate hike introduced by the Fed now has commodity markets moving in all directions.
El Nino has added to the disruptions in mining and agriculture in both major and minor economies with energy stocks showing the most risk and cocoa, wheat and soybeans not too far behind.
Oil Hit the Most
Oil seems to be taking center stage as prices end the year hovering in the $35 range and with a glut of the black gold hitting most major oil-producing countries. The unseasonably warm winter weather has left the UK with its highest October stockpiles of oil for the past five years, according to Government figures. And despite billions of barrels of crude sitting on oil tankers in the middle of the ocean in the Middle East, OPEC refuses to cut down on its oil production.
But oil is not the only energy commodity to be effected by El Nino. In a recent interview, David Wilson, a Citigroup UK director in metals research, noted that the warm weather has reduced the need for battery use in Europe and manufacturers are not restocking them. Batteries work on lead and less demand means lower lead prices.
THE UNSEASONABLY WARM WINTER WEATHER HAS LEFT THE UK WITH ITS HIGHEST OCTOBER STOCKPILES OF OIL FOR THE PAST FIVE YEARS, ACCORDING TO GOVERNMENT FIGURES
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