With Boeing Trading For 28x Earnings, Is The Bull Market In A Melt-Up Phase?

I do not spend a lot of time on cyclical stocks and the industrials and materials sectors are not well represented in portfolios I manage. Lack of expertise is one reason, but another tricky part of investing in cyclical companies is that you need to have a decent sense of their business cycles and that is not easy unless you have some specific experience in the industry.

That said, sometimes I dabble when I can get comfortable enough with the company and stock price simultaneously. In early 2016 that combination was staring me in the face after a sell-off in Boeing (BA) prompted me to buy at prices as low as $105 per share. I do not even recall what the particular short-term Wall Street worry was at the time regarding Boeing’s prospects, but if you are going to feel good about the competitive positioning of a large U.S. manufacturer, BA has got to be near the top of the list (nearly impenetrable market share, minimal competition, and fairly predictable product demand).

In 2015 Boeing had posted GAAP EPS of $7.44 per share, up modestly from 2014 and a new company record. At $105 each, the beaten-down stock in early 2016 was trading at a trailing P/E of 14x and had posted free cash flow in excess of GAAP earnings for four straight years. It was a classic situation of getting a great business for a very reasonable price.

Boeing shares snapped back quickly, reaching $135 in less than two months. Earnings for 2016 were estimated to rise modestly again, which put the stock at 18x current year earnings, or nearly a market multiple for a cyclical business that was on pace for a fourth consecutive year of record earnings per share. As a result, I rang the register and was pleased with a 20% gain in a very short period of time (the IRR on the trade was over 1,000%).

Today, nearly two years later, Boeing stock closed at $320 per share:

What on earth is going on here?

Company management projects GAAP EPS of $11.30 for 2017 (fourth quarter results are due out later this month), which would be 48% above 2016’s record level. Boeing is trading for 28x trailing earnings, versus the S&P 500 at 22x.