With Harrison Having Switched Trains, Analysts Upgrade CSX, Cut CP

Two railways names linked by a recent executive change – CSX (CSX) and Canadian Pacific (CP) – are on track for weekly advances after each reported quarterly results earlier this week. However, CSX and Canadian Pacific’s reports have sparked different reactions on Wall Street, with analysts upgrading the former to Buy-equivalent ratings and a firm cutting its rating on the latter’s shares to Hold.

RESULTS: With Hunter Harrison now at the helm of CSX after leaving Canadian Pacific, the former railway operator reported first quarter earnings per share of 51c and revenue of $2.87B, both above consensus. The company also announced a new $1B share repurchase program, which management expects to complete by the end of the first quarter of 2018, and raised its quarterly dividend to 20c per share from 18c. Meanwhile, Canadian Pacific reported first quarter adjusted earnings per share of C$2.50 and revenue of C$1.6B, slightly beating consensus of C$2.48 and C$1.59B, respectively. However, the company said it sees single-digit adjusted diluted earnings per share growth in 2017, with consensus at C$11.51.

BUY CSX: In a post-earnings research note, Raymond James analyst Patrick Brown upgraded CSX to Outperform from Market Perform, with a $55 price target, citing a review of the opportunity for the company under its “highly experienced and successful” new CEO Hunter Harrison. While “material value recognition” has already been garnered, the analyst told investors that he believes CSX is at an inflection point and should see significant improvement in service, margins, and free cash flow in coming years. The analyst said the first quarter conference call provided detail on redesign plans and that he is more confident that an improved network can create operational improvements. James noted that he expects the redesigned network will streamline operations and his optimization model suggest sub-60% OR is achievable. In a note of his own, his peer at Aegis also upgraded CSX to Buy from Hold, voicing a similar opinion. Analyst Jeffrey Kauffman pointed out that the quarter provided him with “extreme detail” of Harrison’s progress, pointing out that four rails yards are already switching from hump classification to flat switching, and as system velocity and dwell time improves, there are substantial asset utilization savings. Also this morning, Stephens analyst Justin Long raised his price target for CSX to $58 from $44, citing first quarter results and reiterated an Overweight rating on the shares. Meanwhile, UBS analyst Thomas Wadewitz raised his price target on the shares to $60 from $57, noting that after only six weeks since CEO Hunter Harrison started at CSX, the company’s 2017 financial guidance and its commentary on the earnings call show that the velocity of change is greater than he had expected. CSX delivered an “upside surprise” regarding the pace of change and cost side improvement, the analyst contended, adding that he continues to believe upside potential is attractive for CSX and would buy the name.