World Markets Weekend Update: The Sell-off Continues - January 18, 2016

In week two of the new year, the eight indexes our world watch list continued their selloff. The top performer over the previous week was the UK’s FTSE 100, down only 1.83%. The biggest loser is China’s Shanghai Composite, down 8.96% this week, which (bizarrely enough) is an improvement over its 9.97% plunge the first week of the new year. Are we seeing a global bear market? Consider this: Since their 2015 highs, four of the eight are down more than 20%: The Shanghai at -48.3%, the Hang Seng at -31.4%, the DAX at -24.4% and the CAC 40 at 20.1%. The FTSE and SENSEX are not far behind at -18.3% and 17.6%, respectively.

Here is an overlay of the eight illustrating their comparative performance so far in 2016.

Here is a table of the 2015 year end performance, sorted from high to low, along with the interim highs for the eight indexes. The top performing BSE SENSEX is only down 6.37%, while its neighbor to the north, the Shanghai Composite is down a massive 18.03% for 2016.

A Closer Look at the Last Four Weeks

The tables below provide a concise overview of performance comparisons over the past four weeks for these eight major indexes. We’ve also included the average for each week so that we can evaluate the performance of a specific index relative to the overall mean and better understand weekly volatility. The colors for each index name help us visualize the comparative performance over time.

The chart below illustrates the comparative performance of World Markets since March 9, 2009. The start date is arbitrary: The S&P 500, CAC 40 and BSE SENSEX hit their lows on March 9th, the Nikkei 225 on March 10th, the DAX on March 6th, the FTSE on March 3rd, the Shanghai Composite on November 4, 2008, and the Hang Seng even earlier on October 27, 2008. However, by aligning on the same day and measuring the percent change, we get a better sense of the relative performance than if we align the lows.

World Markets Since March 2009

A Longer Look Back

Here is the same chart starting from the turn of 21st century. The relative over-performance of the emerging markets (Shanghai, Mumbai SENSEX and Hang Seng) up to their 2007 peaks is evident, and the SENSEX remains by far the top performer. The Shanghai, in contrast, formed a perfect Eiffel Tower from late 2006 to late 2009.