World Markets Weekend Update: The Selloff Resumes

The week-over-week change in our aggregate world market watch list was a disappointing 2.90% decline, a major reversal from the previous week’s 1.10% gain. China;s Shanghai Composite was the top performer, up 0.95%. The two Eurozone indexes were the big losers, the CAC 40 at -4.90% and the DAXK at -5.24%.

Here is an overlay of the eight illustrating their comparative performance so far in 2016.

Here is a table of the 2016 performance, sorted from high to low, along with the interim highs for the eight indexes. The top performing BSE SENSEX is down only 5.75%, while the Shanghai Composite, despite being the week’s top performer, is down an astonishing 21.95% at the end of the fifth week of 2016 trading.

A Closer Look at the Last Four Weeks

The tables below provide a concise overview of performance comparisons over the past four weeks for these eight major indexes. We’ve also included the average for each week so that we can evaluate the performance of a specific index relative to the overall mean and better understand weekly volatility. The colors for each index name help us visualize the comparative performance over time.

The chart below illustrates the comparative performance of World Markets since March 9, 2009. The start date is arbitrary: The S&P 500, CAC 40 and BSE SENSEX hit their lows on March 9th, the Nikkei 225 on March 10th, the DAX on March 6th, the FTSE on March 3rd, the Shanghai Composite on November 4, 2008, and the Hang Seng even earlier on October 27, 2008. However, by aligning on the same day and measuring the percent change, we get a better sense of the relative performance than if we align the lows.

A Longer Look Back

Here is the same chart starting from the turn of 21st century. The relative over-performance of the emerging markets (Shanghai, Mumbai SENSEX and Hang Seng) up to their 2007 peaks is evident, and the SENSEX remains by far the top performer. The Shanghai, in contrast, formed a perfect Eiffel Tower from late 2006 to late 2009.