Yen Up, Oil Down. Risk Is Off The Table

Today’s Economic events

Australia AIG Construction Index 45.2 vs. 46.1

BoJ Gov. Kuroda Speech

French Trade Balance -5.2bn vs. -3.8bn

Swiss foreign currency reserves 576bn vs. 571bn previously

UK Halifax HPI m/m 2.60% vs. 0.80%

ECB monetary policy meeting minutes released

Canada building permits m/m 15.5% vs. 4.70%

US weekly unemployment claims 267k vs. 271k

Coming Up

The US Consumer Credit

Fed Chair Janet Yellen speech

The markets could be setting up for an epic showdown between currency speculators and the Bank of Japan as USD/JPY continues to gain strong bearish moment. Trading at 108.375, USD/JPY is trading at an 18-month low losing over 1.20% at the time of writing. Despite on and off comments from Japan, no clear commitment or assertiveness further added to the declines with hopes waning that the BoJ will intervene to stem the declines. Even if the Bank of Japan does manage to stabilize the Yen’s strong appreciation, the bounce is likely to be short-lived, as seen by the reaction to the negative rates that were introduced in January. Equity markets in Asian were mixed but overall subdued. The Nikkei225 closed with modest gains of 0.22% while the Shanghai Composite was down -1.35%. The markets failed to rally following the release of the Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes from March 16^th which saw members arguing the case for an April rate hike but later determined that the global risks were increasing warranting a more gradual approach.

The AUD/USD is down 0.88% at the time of writing with the commodity-linked currencies posting losses as well, despite the Greenback was weaker. Economic data from Australia today included the AiG Construction index which fell to 45.2 from 46.1 previously. NZD/USD is also down 0.50% in today’s trading after a brief rally to post a 3-day high at 0.685 before giving back the gains.

In Europe, comments from ECB officials included Mario Draghi, Peter Praet, and Benoit Coeure, who defended the central bank’s policies.