Yields Drop After Fed Hikes Rates

Last week was interesting, to say the least.

It was highlighted by a Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, more White House shake-ups, a budget deal, and more tariffs.

Along with all that, the Dent Research team met in snowy Baltimore for brainstorming sessions.

I was a bit distracted during Wednesday’s meetings because rates were moving higher ahead of the FOMC meeting. The markets were expecting a rate hike, so yields crept up ahead of the 2 p.m. (EST) decision.

The Fed hiked the federal funds rate target range by a quarter-point, as expected, from 1.5% to 1.75%. It also released updated forecasts.

The Fed now expects the economy, as measured by GDP, to grow at an annual rate of 2.7% during 2018, up from a prior forecast of 2.5%. GDP growth in 2019 will be 2.4%, up from a previous estimate of 2.1%. Job gains are expected to push the unemployment rate down to 3.8% this year and 3.6% in 2019 and 2020.

Core consumer inflation, as measured by the PCE index, is expected to hit 1.9% this year and 2.1% next year and into 2020.

The Fed still expects to hike rates two more times this year, three times next year, and a couple more times in 2020. Balance sheet reductions will total $20 billion this month and $30 billion next month. So no change in that plan.

At first glance, the Fed statement appeared hawkish, or even aggressive, in its forecast and planned rate hikes. The market initially sold off Treasury bonds, sending yields higher. But when new Fed Chair Jerome Powell took to the podium to recap the written statement and to answer questions from the press in record time, the markets weren’t so impressed.

I bolded and italicized my summary of the Fed’s inflation expectations because that’s the part that confused the markets. With a growing economy and further gains in the jobs market, how is it that inflation is barely moving higher?

The new Fed chair didn’t or couldn’t explain, and maybe there’s still confusion as to why.